Upstream for Shopify
More of your best customers.
We turn the data you already have into profitable actions — integrated into your existing systems, so you can optimize marketing spend and get more of your best.
Action Queue
Don't just read the diagnosis. Apply the fix.
Every data story pairs with a one-click move: pause a product that's losing money — live in Shopify the second you click — or queue a budget shift to your ad accounts. Nothing executes without your approval, and every move can be undone.
Take Action
The actions you take move your business from bleeding cash to compounding it.
Extra profit in 90 days
+$0
Shift $3,500/mo from Flash Sale Campaign → Signature Bundle
96% of Flash Sale buyers never come back — Signature Bundle keeps 46% of them. Move the money.
From: The Lost Causes · Cold ProspectingShift $2,000/mo from Retargeting → Brand Search
You're paying more for Retargeting and getting less repeat business than Brand Search. Switch it.
From: The Expensive Regulars · Retargeting2 of your queued moves shown · more waiting
Cumulative Net Margin by Cohort
Live · After Product CostEach line represents one group of buyers. If their line is above $0 = profit, below $0 = losing money. Every number is counted after the product cost, shipping, returns, and ad spend are paid.
1,840
Server-Verified Orders
Traced to the exact ad they clicked
38.4%
Blended Post-COGS Margin
Profit after product, shipping & fees
42 Days
Second-Order Payback Latency
Days until their 2nd order pays back the ad
Signature Bundle
Spend: $4,500 · 100 Customers
46% buy again within 42 days
+$14,000 total profit over 12 months
3.11× — profit is 3.11× the ad cost
20% Flash Sale
Spend: $3,500 · 140 Customers
4% buy again (96% never return)
−$1,274 total loss over 12 months
0.64× — profit is less than the ad cost
+$14,000 extra profit expected in the next 90 days
Shift $3,500/mo from Flash Sale Campaigns (96% never buy again) → Signature Bundle
Which first order predicts a repeat buyer
The buyer who pays full price and comes back for more.
- • First product they buy: Trailhead Backpack
- • How soon they buy again: 42 days
- • Profit from each buyer in a year: $153
- • How often they send it back: < 2.1%
Ready to push as a lookalike seed to your ad platforms — one click, whenever you want it.
First-Party Click-to-Order Ledger
A record of which ad click led to each order — not guessed in the browser.
- • Ad type: Paid Social (lookalike audience)
- • Ad click tracked directly, not modeled
- • Cost to get each first buyer: $45.00
- • Profit is 3.11× the ad cost over 12 months
Flags the ads mostly bringing one-time buyers who never come back — so you can cut them.
See which customers make you money — and which ones don't come back.
Every group of customers lands in one of four boxes. Each box tells you the one move to make: re-invest in it, fix it, or cut it.
This is the same buyer groups as the curve above, plotted a different way: LTGP:CAC against buy-again rate, so you can see which groups fund the business and which drain it. As a group's numbers change, it can move from one box to another — a group scoring well today isn't locked in that box forever.
Cohort Profitability × Retention Matrix
Side-to-side = profit per ad dollar (higher is better). Up-and-down = how often buyers come back. Bubble size = how many buyers are in the group.
The Trap
They love the product and buy repeatedly, but acquisition costs are too high. Fix your creative or cut the channel.
The Compounding Zone
Scale spend aggressively. These customers print cash and stick around.
The Drain
Cut immediately. These customers lose money on day one and never come back.
The One-Hit Wonder
Profitable on day one, but dead afterward. Good for cash flow — dangerous to scale without retention hooks.
What's inside a segment
Every bubble above is made of real buyers. Click a bubble in the chart, or pick a group below, to see where they live, who they are, and what they buy.
Example store · illustrative, not averaged across merchants
The Word-of-Mouth Winners · Referral · 950 buyers
Where they are
Age & gender
From a connected Meta/Google Ads account, once each platform clears our review
What they buy
Real purchase data — what this group actually bought and when. Not a lifestyle/values profile: we don't run surveys, buy panel data, or license third-party psychographic datasets.
Business buyers
Channel-presence only — this example store has B2B/wholesale channel orders, and some of this segment's buyers also appear there, but no company name, size, or industry is captured.
B2B orders store-wide
14
In this segment
6
Your best customers are already in your data. Typically scattered across ad dashboards, order histories, and cluttered spreadsheets.
Upstream connects your true cost of goods, logistics, and even return costs to every ad click. You see which campaigns build compounding repeat buyers—and which ones subsidize one-time deal hunters who never come back.
Limited early access · Real data, not modeled · No code required
Want the full math? See how it works.
A Fox & Otter Data product